Saturday, January 14, 2017

4-For-4: What to Expect to in '17

      For my first post of 2017 I thought the 4-For-4 Philadelphia sports fan would like to know in which direction I believe each franchise going.  With a new year brings new opportunities for each to club to (hopefully) take a step forward so this post calls for a mix optimism and realism.  For each squad I will give analysis as to where each team is and what the final result of the season will be, where they intend to go, and how they intend to move forward for 2017 and beyond.  There seems to be a common theme for all four of these franchises, can you figure it out?

The Flyers
Flyers D Ivan Provorov(Left) and F Travis Konecny(Right). Image Courtesy: sonsofpenn.com
  •  The Flyers current record for the 2016-17 season stands at 22-16-6 with 50 points holding them in the 8th seed(or the 2nd Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference standings, so if the season ended today they would just make it into the playoffs.  They are just at the halfway point in the season so only time will tell how they finish in the standings.  Just recently the Flyers pulled off a 10-game win streak keeping them in the hunt in the East but since then have lost 7 out of their last 8 games bringing them back to the middle of the pack, which is where I expect them to finish the season in a similar position and probably get knocked out of the first round due to inexperience, lack of star power, and inconsistent goalie play.
  • The Flyers are a young team with a solid veteran presence but are still lacking star power to elevate them in a very tough Eastern Conference filled with some of the games best.  C Wayne Simmonds is the only Flyer to be selected to the All-Star game this season, while Captain C Claude Giroux has not been the scoring threat he once was (still a solid all-around player) and 2nd year D Shayne Gostisbehere, who had a breakout rookie year last season, is going through what is hopefully a sophomore slump as teams have learned how to play him.  Not to mention that it seems the Flyers still can't figure out the Goalie situation as G Steve Mason can't mentally stay consistent as one of the streakiest goalies in the leagues and backup G Michael Neuvirth can't stay healthy to force the Flyers to move on from Mason.
  • This year the Flyers are essentially meeting expectations as they are a middle of the pack team who may make the playoffs, while luckily grooming their young, developing talent that Former Goalie turned Flyers General Manager Ron Hextall has managed to acquire via the draft.  Before Hextall the Flyers would trade away prospects for a veteran presence to try and compete in the playoffs and would fall short every time, but this new philosophy has many intrigued as to what the future can hold for the team.  The Flyers started the season with two 19 year old's for the first time in over 30 years with D Ivan Provorov and F Travis Konecny who have already more than proven they belong in the NHL even at their young age and will be in the center of what should be a strong, young, core nucleus for this team going forward.  The Flyers finally drafted a Russian Center in German Rubstov, who has the potential to be great with the 22nd pick in last years draft and just the other day had broke out of his contract in the KHL to make his way over to Quebec which makes him one step closer to getting on the ice for the Flyers.  This is significant since late Flyers Owner Ed Snider disapproved of Russian players, now with Hextall the team is moving forward gaining the talent they need to to succeed.  Flyers also have players such talents waiting in Defencemen Travis Sanheim and Phil Myers, just to name some of the more notable players but still need to find a way to acquire better wingers.  Finally, the Goalie issue in which I addressed above may eventually be solved, not sure when but there are a couple of prospects waiting in the wings such as G Anthony Stolarz and Canadian World Juniors starting Goalie Carter Hart, who displayed some wonderful work between the pipes against some of the worlds best Junior players. 
The Sixers
Rookies Ben Simmons (left, injured) and Embiid (right). Image Courtesy: CSNPhilly.com
  •  The Philadelphia 76ers have already surpassed their 2015-16 win total of 10 victories as their record so far is 11-25 though 36 games and are 13th out of 15th in the Eastern Conference.  The rookie phenom C Joel Embiid led Sixers have won 4 out of their last 5 games and have finally brought an in-game excitement to this team for the first time in many years AND their other rookie star, F Ben Simmons, has not stepped on the court yet this season.  There has been no timetable for his return but its looking as if he should be making a February debut as long as everything goes well.  Even with the return of Simmons the Sixers are not expected to be a playoff team this season, even though Joel Embiid believes they have a chance and what he says goes, so who knows but I still believe they will be a bottom tier NBA team in what is hopefully the final year of the tank...
  •  The Sixers have a plethora of assets moving forward, but will their stock-piling pay off and turn this team into an NBA Championship contender? To understand where the team can go moving forward let's take a look at what the Sixers have:
    • C Nerlens Noel - Potential Trade Piece (Restricted Free Agent)
    • C Jahlil Okafor - Potential Trade Piece (Still in Rookie Deal)
    • Two Potential 2017 Lottery Picks (Own and Lakers) and Swap with Kings if poss. And Two 2nd Round Picks (Usually not worth much)
    • One Potential 2018 Lottery Pick and Swap with Kings if poss. And 3 2nd Round Picks
    • Two Potential 2019 Lottery Picks (Own and Kings) 
    • The Sixers have a lot of money with plenty of Cap Room. (Free Agent's?)
  • As you can see the Sixers have plenty of assets as former Sixers General Manager Sam Hinkie would put it.  This upcoming 2017 NBA Draft is very deep at the Guard position for the first time in a while as I believe the top 5-8 picks can come away with an upper-echelon Guard for the future.  All of a sudden the Sixers, who under Hinkie had been tanking for 3 straight years, are starting to pull some wins together and this could hurt their chances of having a Top 3 pick.  Now looking at this could be over zealous by myself, but this can cause a real issue and the Sixers are finding they may be at a serious fork in the road.  Here's the issue: Do they sit Embiid more often, delay Simmons' return, continue losing culture to get a potential great Guard in University of Washington's Markelle Fultz (who I love), UCLA's Lonzo Ball, or University of Kentucky's Malik Monk? OR Do they continue to play Embiid, bring Simmons back into the fold when he's ready to go, try  to win basketball games, build a winning culture now, and potentially miss out on the guards mentioned in the prior question and hope to find someone at the back-end of the lottery?  I can make an argument for both sides because I feel a guy like Fultz or Ball can be the missing 3rd star to go along with Simmons and Embiid, but this team with Embiid playing well and Simmons coming in and potentially making this team better can persuade Free Agents as early as this summer to jump on board the Sixers bandwagon and propel this team to a contender.  I'm not the biggest fan of current Sixers GM Bryan Colangelo due to his track record that screams mediocrity, but he is the guy and I will have to trust what he does.  Maybe his connections with the USA basketball committee will potentially bring in big Free Agent's, but even if the Sixers eventually succeed with Colangelo as GM I will still give more credit to Hinkie because without him there is no Embiid and Simmons.  #TrustTheProcess #HinkieDiedForOurSins
The Phillies 
3 of Phillies Top 10 Prospect OF M Moniak, SS JP Crawford, and OF R Hoskins.  Image Courtesy: CSNPhilly.com
  • The Phillies finished 2016 with the 8th worst record in the MLB at 71-91, while continuing their streak of not making postseason play since 2011.  This past season was the end of an era as Catcher Carlos Ruiz was traded in the summer to the Los Angeles Dodgers and First Baseman Ryan Howard played his final game in a Phillies uniform at the end of the season, knocking off the last two remaining players from their 2008 World Series championship.  That being said the Phillies the past couple of seasons were in a grey area where they were nowhere near making the playoffs, yet not bad enough to have a top pick in the draft due to their attempt of holding on to players past their prime trying to muster up the magic from 6-7 years ago and not getting prospects in return via trade, which is the more important transaction that leads to success in the MLB.  Though unlike basketball and football, baseball does not have a team invest everything in the draft, so there's usually not a real reason to "tank" unless there is a "sure fire, can't miss" player such as when Bryce Harper, now of the Washington Nationals entered the draft in 2010.   2016 to me was the first year we got to get a slight glimpse into the future of the organization and I stress the word slight because the organization continued to not bring up their younger prospects even though in all reality they were not playing for the playoffs due to lack of talent.  Looking at this season the Phil's are still rumored to be looking for a short-term Left handed power bat, which has me intrigued because there have been rumblings they could be connected to 36 year old Toronto Blue Jays slugger OF Jose Bautista.  I don't believe this gets done and they go for a younger cheaper option but they have the money to spend and if they want to bring people back to the ball park it would be in their favor to do so.  This year's lineup and pitching staff have some talent are on the younger side which is a positive, but unfortunately are lacking consistency and star power as has been the case in the past.  In this 2017 season, I believe the Phillies lineup and pitching rotation will improve upon last year but they will not climb that much higher in the standings.  I am predicting a record of 77-85. 
  • This past season the Phillies had finally turned in the direction in which they needed to do so in say....2013.  It all started with now Majority Owner John Middleton who had to get permission to buy out other minority owners for 51% stake in the team, which was easier after Former President David Montgomery stepped down due to Medical reasons, giving control to Middleton.  In doing so Middleton has been an advocate of tearing this thing apart and rebuilding the team from scratch, investing more time and effort into acquiring top-level prospects via trade and the draft.  Before the trade deadline in 2015, Former GM Ruben Amaro was able to trade 2008 World Series MVP Pitcher Cole Hamels and Relief Pitcher Jake Diekman to the Texas Rangers for 6 players in return highlighted by Catching prospect Jorge Alfaro, Outfielder Nick Williams, and Pitcher Jerad Eickhoff, in a last ditch effort to save his job.  Before this trade, the Phillies brought in President Andy MacPhail, which put pressure on Amaro, who did a sub par job when here, eventually leading to his termination, which then lead to the hiring of GM Matt Klentak, a young up-and-coming mind in baseball who was the former Assistant GM of the Los Angeles Angels.  Besides making the trade of former Phillies-now Astros Closer Ken "100 Miles" Giles, which brought in solid Pitching prospects including Pitcher Vincent Velazquez, Klentak has been subtle and will make more moves when the time is appropriate.  Klentak in early December told Ryan Lawrence of Philly Voice, "I don't have *any doubt* that this franchise will make significant investments when the time is right" in regards to the possibility of the team spending $300-400 million dollars on a Free Agent.  This quote is significant because the team has a lot of money to spend and in my opinion are at least a star hitter AND a star pitcher away from contending for anything.  Do I think they will eventually get to this point? Absolutely, but I believe it is still going to take some time.  My immediate hope for this upcoming season is that we see more of our upper-tier youngsters this season such as SS JP Crawford and OF Nick Williams, either for the future of the team or for trade possibilities before it is too late.  As of now I believe the Phillies are the furthest away of the four teams but when it comes together we could see a run similar or even better than we saw begin a decade ago.
The Eagles
WR J Matthews and QB C Wentz celebrating a TD.  Image Courtesy: PhillyVoice.com
  • The Eagles are just coming off their first season under 1st year Head Coach Doug Pederson and Rookie Quarterback Carson Wentz with a record of 7-9.  After a promising 3-0 start, the season fell apart to such issues as: a 10-game Right Tackle Lane Johnson, injuries (which most teams experience), and inconsistent coaching and play calling.  Luckily, the trade for the franchise Quarterback(Wentz), that GM Howie Roseman orchestrated, was just the beginning of the rebuilding process.  Now I'll admit that I thought former HC Chip Kelly was going to be the savior of this team and I'll admit I was very much in the wrong, but this city was duped and now Howie Roseman has to fix the destruction that Chip cause getting rid of star Wide Receiver Desean Jackson and Running Back Lesean McCoy while letting WR Jeremy Maclin walk out the door to the Kansas City Chiefs all in the matter of 2 years.  The Eagles are going into an offseason where they have somewhat figured out who they are, while having to continue the process of rebuilding.  With that being said it is hard to make a prediction on how the 2017 season will go, but I can tell you that this offseason is one of the more crucial offseason's for this team going forward.
  • To quickly summarize how the Eagles (Front Office mostly) got to where they are now let's start back to Andy Reid's departure at the end of the 2012 season: Chip Kelly was brought in to coach the team, who had a much different on-field philosophy than Reid's regime, which led to major changes to the roster, while Howie Roseman was elevated to GM.  Roseman and Kelly, who Roseman was instrumental in bringing in, could not see eye-to-eye, which eventually lead to Owner Jeffery Lurie taking Kelly's side in year three as head coach promoting him to GM as well.  Lurie would then eventually fire Kelly after a tumultuous third season due to many reasons, which leads us to another drastic change of philosophy both on and off the field also placing Howie Roseman back in the GM seat once again.  With that story aside, Roseman has to reconstruct this team to make them a contender again as I have mentioned before.  First, the Eagles believe they have the coach that will lead them to the promise land, but I do not and I am afraid they will find out sooner than later but I digress.  Next, Howie would go on to get rid of a decent amount of "Chip's guys" who do not fit the scheme that this team is suited for.  A major starting point of a rebuild on the field is solving the issue of the Quarterback by finding the franchise QB which they did by making not one, but two trades to move up in the 2016 NFL draft from the 13th overall pick to the 2nd overall pick to select QB Carson Wentz.  Wentz in my opinion, took this past season and showed not only the front office and the team but the city and it's fans that he has the talent and the character to lead this team in the future.  These moves like the coaching/GM carousel have been made now and now it gets harder because the team has to hit on the players surrounding Carson both on Offense and Defense.  Essentially, its as simple as this, the Eagles need to address both Wide Receiver on Offense and Cornerback on Defense via Free Agency and the Draft.  Even though the solution to me is simple in theory, it is difficult to accomplish, especially for this organization to hit on these outside players.  Hopefully the new Scouting Director Joe Douglas and his Assistant Andy Widel can improve their draft and influence the type of players Howie pursues in Free Agency.  Before both the Free Agency period and the Draft I will preview these periods in which direction I think they should go specifically but for now I believe the Eagles 2017 season will directly be affected for better or for worse whether they hit on both Wide Receivers and Cornerbacks.
Conclusion
I believe that the sports fans in the city of Philadelphia have a lot to look forward in the coming years as all four organizations have started the rebuilding process.   As we know the first step to solving a problem is admitting you have one and all four of these teams have them and now they are improving upon them.  Some of the teams are further along (Sixers, Flyers) than the others, but they are all aiming for the same destination and I believe that these teams successes could come together around the same time.  To that I say, besides the Phillies one World Series title in 2008, we have waited long enough to become successful what is a couple more years, knowing that it is being done in the proper manner.

As Sixers already great rookie Joel Embiid would say "Trust The Process"!